Hubungan Kausalitas antara Deforestasi, Pertanian dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi: Studi Empiris di Indonesia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.36636/dialektika.v10i2.7148Kata Kunci:
Deforestasi, Pertanian, Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, Kausalitas, VECMAbstrak
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengekplorasi secara menyeluruh arah hubungan yang terbentuk baik hubungan jangka pendek maupun hubungan jangka panjang, serta mencari tahu apakah hubungan tersebut memiliki hubungan satu atau dua arah dan interaksi yang kompleks dari deforestasi, pertanian dan pertumbuhan ekonomi (analisis hubungan tripartit) di Indonesia. Model analisis yang digunakan adalah Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) terhadap data time-series dari tahun 1991-2023, penelitian ini mengungkap interaksi dinamis antar ketiga variabel tersebut. Hasil estimasi menunjukkan bahwa dalam jangka pendek, deforestasi dengan pertanian serta Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per kapita dengan pertanian memiliki arah hubungan yang saling mempengaruhi sedangkan GDP per kapita dengan deforestasi hanya memiliki satu arah yaitu GDP per kapita mempengaruhi deforestasi. Namun dalam jangka panjang, terdapat hubungan kasualitas atau arah hubungan yang saling mempengaruhi antara ketiga variabel tersebut. Temuan ini menegaskan bahwa penting adanya pendekatan pembangunan ekonomi yang mempertimbangkan keberlanjutan lingkungan dan efisiensi penggunaan lahan.
Referensi
Ajanaku, B. A., & Collins, A. R. (2021). Economic growth and deforestation in African countries: Is the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis applicable? Forest Policy and Economics, 129. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2021.102488
Akaike, H. (1969). Fitting autoregreesive models for prediction. In Selected Papers of Hirotugu Akaike (pp. 131–135). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4612-1694-0_10
Akaike, H. (2003). A new look at the statistical model identification. IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, 19(6), 716–723. https://doi.org/10.1109/TAC.1974.1100705
Antonarakis, A. S., Pacca, L., & Antoniades, A. (2022). The effect of financial crises on deforestation: a global and regional panel data analysis. Sustainability Science, 17(3), 1037–1057. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-021-01086-8
Aquilas, N. A., Mukong, A. K., Kimengsi, J. N., & Ngangnchi, F. H. (2022). Economic activities and deforestation in the Congo basin: An environmental kuznets curve framework analysis. Environmental Challenges, 8, 100553. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envc.2022.100553
Austin, K. G., Mosnier, A., Pirker, J., McCallum, I., Fritz, S., & Kasibhatla, P. S. (2017). Shifting patterns of oil palm driven deforestation in Indonesia and implications for zero-deforestation commitments. Land Use Policy, 69, 41–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2017.08.036
Austin, K. G., Schwantes, A., Gu, Y., & Kasibhatla, P. S. (2019a). What causes deforestation in Indonesia? Environmental Research Letters, 14(2), 024007. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf6db
Barbier, E. B. (2020). Long run agricultural land expansion, booms and busts. Land Use Policy, 93, 103808. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2019.01.011
Cisneros, E., Kis-Katos, K., & Nuryartono, N. (2021). Palm oil and the politics of deforestation in Indonesia. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 108, 102453. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2021.102453
Destiartono, M. E. (2023). Apakah Urbanisasi Cepat dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Menyebabkan Deforestasi? Studi Empiris di Indonesia. Ekonomikawan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Dan Studi Pembangunan, 23(2), 280–290. https://doi.org/10.30596/ekonomikawan.v23i2.12232
Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366a), 427–431. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1979.10482531
Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 251–276. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913236
Field, B. (2008). Natural Resource Economics: Second Edition. United State of America: Waveland Press
FRA. (2000). The Forest Resources Assessment Programme. www.fao.org/fo
Gatto, M., Wollni, M., & Qaim, M. (2015). Oil palm boom and land-use dynamics in Indonesia: The role of policies and socioeconomic factors. Land Use Policy, 46, 292–303. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2015.03.001
GFW. (2023, June 5). Global Forest Watch and the Forest Resources Assessment, Explained in 5 Graphics. GFW. https://www.globalforestwatch.org/blog/data-and-research/global-forest-watch-and-the-forest-resources-assessment-explained-in-5-graphics-2/
Global Forest Watch. (2025). Global Forest Watch. Update. https://www.globalforestwatch.org/dashboards/country/IDN/?map=eyJjYW5Cb3VuZCI6dHJ1ZX0%3D
Hannan, E. J., & Quinn, B. G. (1979). The determination of the order of an autoregression. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Methodological), 41(2), 190–195. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1979.tb01072.x
Hwang, J. H., & Yoo, S. H. (2014). Energy consumption, CO2 emissions, and economic growth: Evidence from Indonesia. Quality and Quantity, 48(1), 63–73. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-012-9749-5
Iritié, B. G. J. J., & Tiémélé, J. B. (2024). Economic growth, institutions, trade openness, and the deforestation mitigation in an agriculture-based economy: an empirical analysis from Côte d’Ivoire. Environment, Development and Sustainability. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-024-05808-7
Jamal, S. W., Suparno, S., Hadiyanti, S. U. E., Sadidah, D., & Dewi, M. (2024). The Bionomic Equilibrium Model for Balancing Forest Conservation and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Indonesia. BHUMI: Jurnal Agraria Dan Pertanahan, 9(2), 126–140. https://doi.org/10.31292/bhumi.v9i2.679
Johansen, S. (1995). Likelihood-based inference in cointegrated vector autoregressive models. OUP Oxford. https://econpapers.repec.org/RePEc:oxp:obooks:9780198774501
Khan, S. (2023). AGRICULTURE EXPANSION: THE MAIN DRIVER OF FOREST DEGRADATION AND ITS CAUSES. https://doi.org/10.52458/9789388996815.2023.eb.ch-11
Klasen, S., Faust, H., Grimm, M., & Schwarze, S. (2010). Demography, development, and deforestation at the rainforest margin in Indonesia. Tropical Rainforests and Agroforests under Global Change: Ecological and Socio-Economic Valuations, 213–236. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-00493-3_10
Lawrence, D., & Vandecar, K. (2015). Effects of tropical deforestation on climate and agriculture. Nature Climate Change, 5(1), 27–36. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2430
Leon, M., Cornejo, G., Calderón, M., González-Carrión, E., & Florez, H. (2022). Effect of deforestation on climate change: A co-integration and causality approach with time series. Sustainability, 14(18), 11303. https://doi.org/10.3390/su141811303
Lütkepohl, H. (2005). New introduction to multiple time series analysis. Springer Science & Business Media.
Mahendra, J. R., Aldyan, R. A., & Emovwodo, S. O. (2024). Examining Indonesian Government Policies in Tackling Deforestation: Balancing Economy and Environment. Journal of Law, Environmental and Justice, 2(1), 42–62. https://doi.org/10.62264/jlej.v2i1.93
Malahayati, M. (2018). The role of the forest-related sector to the Indonesian Economy: SAM Multiplier Analysis 1985–2008. Open Agriculture, 3 (1), 171–179. https://doi.org/10.1515/opag-2018-0018
Margono, B. A., Potapov, P. V, Turubanova, S., Stolle, F., & Hansen, M. C. (2014). Primary forest cover loss in Indonesia over 2000–2012. Nature Climate Change, 4(8), 730–735. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2277
Meijaard, E., Garcia-Ulloa, J., Sheil, D., Wich, S. A., Carlson, K. M., Juffe-Bignoli, D., & Brooks, T. M. (2018). Oil palm and biodiversity. A Situation Analysis by the IUCN Oil Palm Task Force. https://coilink.org/20.500.12592/8wrn29
Munawar, A., Hidayatullah, H., Hanafi, H., Aini, M., & Megasari, I. D. (2024). Legal Aspects of Land Burning for Agricultural Land Clearing as A Form of Local Wisdom in Certain Areas. Proceeding: Islamic University of Kalimantan. https://doi.org/10.31602/piuk.v0i0.16163
Numata, I., Elmore, A. J., Cochrane, M. A., Wang, C., Zhao, J., & Zhang, X. (2022). Deforestation, plantation-related land cover dynamics and oil palm age-structure change during 1990–2020 in Riau Province, Indonesia. Environmental Research Letters, 17(9), 094024. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac8a61
Pendrill, F., Persson, U. M., Godar, J., & Kastner, T. (2019). Deforestation displaced: Trade in forest-risk commodities and the prospects for a global forest transition. Environmental Research Letters, 14(5). https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab0d41
Phillips, P. C. B., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335–346. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/75.2.335
Prochazka, P., Abrham, J., Cerveny, J., Kobera, L., Sanova, P., Benes, D., Fink, J.-M., Jiraskova, E., Primasova, S., & Soukupova, J. (2023). Understanding the socio-economic causes of deforestation: a global perspective. Frontiers in Forests and Global Change, 6, 1288365. https://doi.org/10.3389/ffgc.2023.1288365
Putra, M. F. A., & Gunarto, T. (2023). Analysis The Impact of Economic, Population, Agriculture, and Foreign Investment on Deforestation in Indonesia. International Journal of Social Science, Education, Communication and Economics (SINOMICS JOURNAL), 2(4), 1035–1046. https://doi.org/10.54443/sj.v2i4.203
Rahman, Md. H., Naito, D., Moeliono, M., Mitani, Y., & Susaeta, A. I. (2025). Oil palm- and rubber-driven deforestation in Indonesia and Malaysia (2000–2021) and efforts toward zero deforestation commitments. Agroforestry Systems, 99(1), 20. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10457-024-01119-y
Ritchie, H., & Roser, M. (2021). Forests and deforestation. Our World in Data. https://ourworldindata.org/deforestation-degradation
Sanjaya, M. Y., & Hadiyanto, H. (2023). Pengaruh Pembangunan Pertanian terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia Tahun 1985-2022. Ecoplan, 6(2), 155–166. https://doi.org/10.20527/ecoplan.v6i2.678
Schwarz, G. (1978). Estimating the dimension of a model. The Annals of Statistics, 461–464. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2958889
Seto, K. C., & Ramankutty, N. (2016). Hidden linkages between urbanization and food systems. Science, 352(6288), 943–945. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaf7439
Sibhatu, K. T., Steinhübel, L., Siregar, H., Qaim, M., & Wollni, M. (2022). Spatial heterogeneity in smallholder oil palm production. Forest Policy and Economics, 139, 102731. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2022.102731
Souza, M. (2024). The economic consequences of deforestation in the amazon basin on Brazil’s agricultural sector and biodiversity: a comparative analysis of pre and post-2000 policy interventions. Law and Economy, 3(2), 23–30. https://doi.org/10.56397/le.2024.02.06
Sulumbe, I. A. B. Y. I. M. (2016). Analysis of the Impact of Deforestation on Agricultural Productivity in Nigeria: An Error Correction Modeling Approach. J. Biol., Agric. Healthcare, 6(19), 1–6. https://iiste.org/Journals/index.php/JBAH/article/view/33457/34397
Syahputra, A. M., Bakri, S., & Qurniati, R. (2021). Pengaruh tutupan hutan dan lahan terhadap sector pertanian dalam perekonomian pendapatan daerah: studi di Provinsi Lampung. Ulin €“Jurnal Hutan Tropis, 6(1), 9–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.32522/ujht.v6i1.6088
Tanveer, A., Song, H., Faheem, M., & Daud, A. (2024). Caring for the environment. How do deforestation, agricultural land, and urbanization degrade the environment? Fresh insight through the ARDL approach. Environment, Development and Sustainability. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-023-04368-6
Tietenberg, T., & Lewis, L. (2012). Environmental & Natural Resource Economics 9th Edition.
Toaha, M., & Mondal, L. (2023). Agriculture Credit and Economic Growth in Bangladesh: A Time Series Analysis. ArXiv Preprint ArXiv:2309.04118. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2309.04118
Torres, G. V., & Cockburn, G. F. (2021). Influence of Deforestation and Environmental Degradation on Agriculture in Mexico. https://www.stratfordjournal.org/journals/index.php/journal-of-agriculture/article/view/823/961
UNDP. (2001, November 2). A renewed call to halt deforestation by 2030. United Nations Development Programme.
Waluyo, E. A., & Terawaki, T. (2016). Environmental Kuznets curve for deforestation in Indonesia: an ARDL bounds testing approach. Journal of Economic Cooperation & Development, 37(3), 87. https://www.proquest.com/scholarly-journals/environmental-kuznets-curve-deforestation/docview/1869014111/se-2?accountid=31533
Wheeler, D., Hammer, D., Kraft, R., Dasgupta, S., & Blankespoor, B. (2013). Economic dynamics and forest clearing: A spatial econometric analysis for Indonesia. Ecological Economics, 85, 85–96. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2012.11.005
Widiono, S. (2024). Oil Palm Plantation Expansion and Population Problems: An Explanatory Factor for Deforestation in Indonesia. Dynamics of Rural Society Journal, 2(2, July), 76–88. https://doi.org/10.37905/drsj.v2i2.50
WRI. (2017). Hutan dan Target Pembangunan Berkelanjutan (SDG). WRI. https://wri-indonesia.org/id/wawasan/hutan-dan-target-pembangunan-berkelanjutan-sdg
Zambrano-Monserrate, M. A., Carvajal-Lara, C., Urgilés-Sanchez, R., & Ruano, M. A. (2018). Deforestation as an indicator of environmental degradation: Analysis of five European countries. Ecological Indicators, 90, 1–8. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2018.02.049
Unduhan
Diterbitkan
Terbitan
Bagian
Lisensi
Hak Cipta (c) 2025 Maksimilianus Paulus Jati Gamatara, Marianus Antonius Deo Datus Banase, Adelheid Elisabet Loda
Artikel ini berlisensiCreative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
View My Stats
